In spite of the 'ariwo oja' you are hearing all over the place,here are my ten top reasons why i think GEJ still has a slight edge over buhari.
1. Power of incumbency- jonathan has the vast resources; money chest, police and other law enforcement agencies and inec, firmly under his control.
2. Buhari has baggages from the past which cannot be easily wished away-the religious fundamentalist and ethnic bigot stereotype which has stuck on him makes him pretty unmarketable to many
3. The power brokers are averse to any change in the scheme of things and are unlikely to support a buhari's aspiration knowing what he stands for and will work against his emergence,which works in GEJ's interest.
4.The apc can't deliver the south-south and south- east votes,neither can they deliver the whole northern bloc votes as a unit cos the votes there will be shared with pdp and others; even the southwest cant be totally cornered by apc (remember ekiti and ondo states are already under pdp's control).
5. When push comes to shove,the real people who are going to vote in large numbers under the elements are not the elites or the educated ones,rather its market people,transporters,low lifers,etc that will,and they only understand one language,stomach infrastructure,in which the pdp has been in the business longer (nationally) than any other party,so forget all that noise being made on social media and elsewhere,mama alata and baba eleran dey twitter and facebook? Mtcheww!
6. When you talk about rigging; whether open or subtle,pdp has more experience and can muster more resources for it than any other party.
7. Last minute cooperation and underground deals can still be reached by pdp to change the tides in their favour,which has always been the case in past elections.
8. Apc is a northern arrangement in collaboration with tinubu's influence in southwest to usurp power from pdp,simple! Pdp has a far more reaching national appeal. Nigerians are far more discerning and can see right through the personal,religious and regional aspirations of a few individuals masquerading as progressives.
9. In spite of what many think, jonathan's govt has many verifiable achievements and projects,and this pdp will highlight to high levels during campaigns,and many will have a last minute change of heart and allow jonathan a second term to continue his good works.
10. There could be infighting in apc even days or hours to elections in which members may work against the party and moles planted by the pdp will exploit this to great lengths in pdp's favour.
On a subjective note,buhari has been a serial loser and would easily repeat his failure streak yet again while jonathan's goodluck might well work in his favour again (with patience tagging along of course). No prejudice to any one of them,just saying things as they are
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